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Heat pump or furnace: which costs less to run?
Enter a year of fuel use and prices. The page compares what the same heat would cost from a heat pump, and shows the COP at which the two break even.
The comparison in two lines
Every unit of fuel is converted to kWh of heat using the EIA energy table (1 kWh = 3,412 Btu, 1 therm = 100,000 Btu, 1 cubic foot of gas = 1,036 Btu, 1 gallon of heating oil = 138,500 Btu, 1 gallon of propane = 91,452 Btu). The furnace delivers that heat times its efficiency. The heat pump delivers one kWh of heat for every 1/COP kWh of electricity.
Break-even COP = electricity price x efficiency / fuel price per kWh of fuel. See it for every state on Break-even COP by state.
The gas price decides the winner. EIA's US residential gas price was 1.56 dollars per therm in March 2026, 1.48 for the full year 2025 and 2.61 in August 2026. Enter the price from your own winter bill and read the break-even fuel price on the result.
This is running cost only. Installation, ductwork, rebates and whether the heat pump holds its COP on your coldest days are not in the number.