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Heat pump vs gas furnace: the break-even COP in 44 US states and DC
The break-even COP is the seasonal COP at which a heat pump costs the same to run as a gas furnace. Below it the furnace is cheaper to run; above it the heat pump is. Each row uses that state's own electricity and gas prices.
Both prices differ by state. Electricity is the EIA August 2026 state average; gas is the EIA 2025 annual residential price for the state, converted to dollars per therm at 1,036 Btu per cubic foot. The furnace is 0.80 efficient in every row. The 45 states listed are the ones where EIA published a 2025 gas price; states with no 2025 figure are left out rather than filled with a guess. Put your own prices on the heat pump calculator.
| State | Electricity, ¢/kWh (Aug 2026) | Gas, $/therm (2025) | Break-even COP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 16.33 | 1.69 | 2.27 |
| Alaska | 29.41 | 1.25 | 5.52 |
| Arizona | 15.05 | 1.79 | 1.97 |
| Arkansas | 14.37 | 1.86 | 1.81 |
| California | 29.75 | 2.12 | 3.29 |
| Colorado | 17.17 | 1.08 | 3.73 |
| Delaware | 18.70 | 1.54 | 2.85 |
| District of Columbia | 25.98 | 1.61 | 3.78 |
| Florida | 14.99 | 2.46 | 1.43 |
| Georgia | 15.90 | 1.97 | 1.89 |
| Hawaii | 47.18 | 5.06 | 2.19 |
| Idaho | 13.37 | 0.74 | 4.24 |
| Illinois | 19.32 | 1.09 | 4.16 |
| Indiana | 17.02 | 1.11 | 3.60 |
| Iowa | 17.06 | 1.02 | 3.92 |
| Kansas | 15.47 | 1.43 | 2.54 |
| Kentucky | 13.80 | 1.37 | 2.36 |
| Louisiana | 12.87 | 1.68 | 1.80 |
| Massachusetts | 30.48 | 2.42 | 2.95 |
| Michigan | 22.99 | 1.05 | 5.13 |
| Minnesota | 17.20 | 1.06 | 3.80 |
| Mississippi | 14.43 | 1.61 | 2.10 |
| Missouri | 16.02 | 1.44 | 2.61 |
| Montana | 15.57 | 0.87 | 4.20 |
| Nebraska | 13.54 | 1.10 | 2.89 |
| Nevada | 12.72 | 1.27 | 2.35 |
| New Hampshire | 27.64 | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| New Jersey | 24.61 | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| New Mexico | 16.51 | 0.95 | 4.07 |
| New York | 28.65 | 1.70 | 3.95 |
| North Dakota | 13.31 | 0.92 | 3.39 |
| Ohio | 19.38 | 1.34 | 3.39 |
| Oklahoma | 14.82 | 1.39 | 2.50 |
| Oregon | 15.92 | 1.61 | 2.32 |
| Pennsylvania | 21.77 | 1.45 | 3.52 |
| South Dakota | 15.15 | 0.95 | 3.74 |
| Tennessee | 13.42 | 1.14 | 2.76 |
| Texas | 15.91 | 1.87 | 1.99 |
| Utah | 13.31 | 0.98 | 3.18 |
| Vermont | 23.84 | 1.74 | 3.21 |
| Virginia | 17.64 | 1.62 | 2.55 |
| Washington | 14.63 | 1.70 | 2.02 |
| West Virginia | 16.31 | 1.33 | 2.88 |
| Wisconsin | 19.41 | 1.04 | 4.38 |
| Wyoming | 14.43 | 1.13 | 2.99 |
Electricity: EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A. Gas and Btu values: EIA. Opened 2026-11-14. Break-even COP = electricity price x 0.80 / gas price per kWh of gas.